Why Shinzo Abe is backing a little-known hawk
It’s not just because the former PM thinks Sanae Takaichi is his protege
Why is former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe throwing his weight behind Sanae Takaichi — a politician little known among the public beyond her conservative views?
Perhaps it’s because Abe genuinely believes former internal affairs minister Takaichi is the right person for continuity and has a shared vision for the country. Or maybe as the one who started womenomics, Abe thinks it’s high time Japan chooses a woman to run the world’s third-largest economy.
There is likely some truth behind both those motives. But it’s also a maneuver by the former prime minister so that the heavyweights of the Liberal Democratic Party can maintain control of the increasingly fluid political situation within Japan’s governing party.
The LDP presidential race, which formally began Friday, is becoming increasingly unpredictable because of the election’s format this time around, which gives substantial weight to rank-and-file votes that are more reflective of public opinion.
The race is tight, fought among Takaichi, former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, administrative reform minister Taro Kono and former internal affairs minister Seiko Noda. If opinion polls are any indication, Kono is by far the front-runner among the public — but some within the party are concerned that the reformist could usher in radical change and wreck the LDP’s well-established system.
The LDP presidential election has always been a numbers game. In the past, that game was played almost entirely within the confines of the party headquarters in Tokyo, but in this upcoming race, it is the LDP’s local chapters that stand to shape the outcome.
When the LDP’s sitting members of parliament cast their votes on Sept. 29, the party branch in each prefecture will gather and count all the ballots from rank-and-file members throughout the country. These branches will be apportioned an equal share of ballots as the party’s sitting parliamentarians. It is that parity in voting strength that has changed the calculus for LDP leaders.
That parity did not always exist; rather, the rules for the LDP presidential election have evolved over time. Originally, it was only sitting parliamentarians who could vote. If a candidate could not achieve a majority in the first round, it would go to a second round with only the top two vote-getters.
The two-round format has remained unchanged, but the party decided to incorporate some representation from the local chapters in 1978. It was not until 2014 that the LDP changed its rules to allocate an equal number of votes between parliamentary members and local chapters. This, many party members believed, would help ensure that local chapters’ voices are heard and help break the power that the LDP’s factions and elites have long held over the party. It should come as no surprise that the party’s secretary-general at the time was the reform-minded former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
The first time the new rules were used was in 2018, when Ishiba went head-to-head with Abe. In that election, the LDP heavyweights were unconcerned with local chapter votes because Abe commanded almost all the parliamentary-level votes and had a comfortable level of support from rank-and-file members.
The same was not true for the election last year. Party leaders understood the implications of the local chapter votes given Ishiba’s popularity with LDP members outside of Tokyo. In other words, they knew that if the local chapters were given an equal share of votes, it might have enabled Ishiba to win. What they did was reduce the number of local chapter votes to only three per prefecture for a total of 141 compared to the 394 votes for sitting parliamentarians. With voting heavily weighted toward members of the Diet, the LDP’s factions could guarantee a victory for Yoshihide Suga.
Why Shinzo Abe is backing a little-known hawk
It’s not just because the former PM thinks Sanae Takaichi is his protege
Why is former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe throwing his weight behind Sanae Takaichi — a politician little known among the public beyond her conservative views?
Perhaps it’s because Abe genuinely believes former internal affairs minister Takaichi is the right person for continuity and has a shared vision for the country. Or maybe as the one who started womenomics, Abe thinks it’s high time Japan chooses a woman to run the world’s third-largest economy.
There is likely some truth behind both those motives. But it’s also a maneuver by the former prime minister so that the heavyweights of the Liberal Democratic Party can maintain control of the increasingly fluid political situation within Japan’s governing party.
The LDP presidential race, which formally began Friday, is becoming increasingly unpredictable because of the election’s format this time around, which gives substantial weight to rank-and-file votes that are more reflective of public opinion.
The race is tight, fought among Takaichi, former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, administrative reform minister Taro Kono and former internal affairs minister Seiko Noda. If opinion polls are any indication, Kono is by far the front-runner among the public — but some within the party are concerned that the reformist could usher in radical change and wreck the LDP’s well-established system.
The LDP presidential election has always been a numbers game. In the past, that game was played almost entirely within the confines of the party headquarters in Tokyo, but in this upcoming race, it is the LDP’s local chapters that stand to shape the outcome.
When the LDP’s sitting members of parliament cast their votes on Sept. 29, the party branch in each prefecture will gather and count all the ballots from rank-and-file members throughout the country. These branches will be apportioned an equal share of ballots as the party’s sitting parliamentarians. It is that parity in voting strength that has changed the calculus for LDP leaders.
That parity did not always exist; rather, the rules for the LDP presidential election have evolved over time. Originally, it was only sitting parliamentarians who could vote. If a candidate could not achieve a majority in the first round, it would go to a second round with only the top two vote-getters.
The two-round format has remained unchanged, but the party decided to incorporate some representation from the local chapters in 1978. It was not until 2014 that the LDP changed its rules to allocate an equal number of votes between parliamentary members and local chapters. This, many party members believed, would help ensure that local chapters’ voices are heard and help break the power that the LDP’s factions and elites have long held over the party. It should come as no surprise that the party’s secretary-general at the time was the reform-minded former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
The first time the new rules were used was in 2018, when Ishiba went head-to-head with Abe. In that election, the LDP heavyweights were unconcerned with local chapter votes because Abe commanded almost all the parliamentary-level votes and had a comfortable level of support from rank-and-file members.
The same was not true for the election last year. Party leaders understood the implications of the local chapter votes given Ishiba’s popularity with LDP members outside of Tokyo. In other words, they knew that if the local chapters were given an equal share of votes, it might have enabled Ishiba to win. What they did was reduce the number of local chapter votes to only three per prefecture for a total of 141 compared to the 394 votes for sitting parliamentarians. With voting heavily weighted toward members of the Diet, the LDP’s factions could guarantee a victory for Yoshihide Suga.
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